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accuracy, experts, ideas, predictions

Experts Favor Bad Ideas

  Publicerad av Emanuel Sidea

“The basic idea was to solicit thousands of predictions from hundreds of experts about the fates of dozens of countries, and then score the predictions for accuracy. We find that the media not only fail to weed out bad ideas, but that they often favor bad ideas, especially when the truth is too messy to be packaged neatly.”

Philip E. Tetlock, “Expert Political Judgment: How Good is It? How Can We Know?”